With Week 3 of college football officially in the books, we can start to set aside the contenders from the pretenders, especially when it comes to Heisman trophy candidates.
The first few weeks have provided us with both highs and lows from the acclaimed list of candidates, causing some bettors to get excited about their longshots, and others to look to the future with the season still young.
The Heisman trophy market is always one of the most heavily bet going into Week 1. Before the season started, Oklahoma star quarterback Spencer Rattler was the overwhelming favorite to win the award at FOX Bet, at +550.
But, now that the oddsmakers have a few weeks of games under their belts, the Heisman odds are on the move, with Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral leading the way.
Entering the season, Corral was listed at +2500 to win the Heisman at FOX Bet. Now, after three weeks, the signal-caller is the betting favorite, currently listed at +200 to win college football’s most prestigious award.
Besides being the favorite across the board at multiple sportsbooks, Corral has also become a huge liability on their ledgers.
“Our biggest and most realistic liability so far is Matt Corral – action on him since the beginning of the CFB season has been nonstop,” PointsBet sports analyst Michael Korn said.
Understandably so, as Corral has thrown for 997 yards, nine touchdowns, and is completing 68.8% of his throws through three games. The QB also has rushed for 158 yards and five touchdowns. Also, Corral has yet to commit a single turnover this season. Most importantly, he’s led Ole Miss to a 3-0 record, and the team continues to climb up the rankings (now up to No. 13).
“Corral’s rise is great to watch and he certainly has some backers at 25-1 so it’s no wonder we were quick to cut him in after his great start,” FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor said. “If he keeps winning and keeps looking after the ball then he will be right up there when the season ends.”
FOX Sports’ very own betting expert Sam Panayotovich has been on the Corral for Heisman train for over a month now.
“You’ll have to go a little deeper to find my sleeper: Matt Corral at 25-to-1,” Panayotovich screamed from the rooftops on August 15th.
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While Corral was the biggest riser after three weeks, Rattler was the biggest faller. The Oklahoma quarterback opened the year as the betting favorite at +550 at FOX Bet. The Sooners are 3-0, yet Rattler has not put on a show in wins over Tulane and Nebraska. As such, Rattler’s odds have lengthened to +1800.
One man’s trash is another man’s treasure, as Panayotovich now sees value on Rattler’s longer odds.
“I don’t hate a poke on Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler at 18-to-1 via FOX Bet,” Panayotovich said. “Rattler has been a little erratic with the football in the early going, but he’s still completing 75 percent of his passes in an offense that should only get better with more reps.
“Let’s not forget that Rattler was the preseason favorite at +550, so you get more than triple the value right now. This is a tremendous opportunity to buy low on a player who possesses the skills and plays in the right scheme to put up big numbers. The Sooners are going to be favored in every single game the rest of the regular season and there are plenty of high-profile games (Texas, at Baylor, at Oklahoma State) for Rattler to make some magic.”
There is still a lot of the season left and the race will stay fluid, so it is all about your perspective as a bettor.
Do you take a shot on Rattler now with better odds? Do you sit tight if you have a Corral ticket? Or do you dig a little deeper for another stud flying under the radar with even longer odds?
Those are the joys of being a gambler, which is why this race will be fun to watch as the contenders cross the finish line.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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